How about some context and not freaking out and can we present stats consistently?

One thing I keep hearing people freak out about is the number of "new cases" but what does that mean really?  Just the number of new cases means nothing really because lets think about it, not everyone that tests positive is symptomatic, not everyone that tests positive needs to be hospitalized, not everyone that test positive but needs to be admitted to the hospital is put in the ICU, so what is the big deal about new cases, without other information around it is a big number that is meaningless in my opinion. So the graphic below can look really scary if you think of it on its own.

A similar chart

This is a very serious illness for the elderly and those that have underlying conditions, I don't think that is any debate about that.  But I have to wonder why now that we have more data is this really that scary to those that are not in the high risk category?  Look at this chart...based on this combined with other stats, yes I want to be cautious but this is not as scary as it was when we didn't have much info.

And then look at this one

So if you are 68+, have had a previous hospitalization and underlying conditions, i can understand being very freaked out about this.  If you are not high risk you certainly want to take precautions, but is it worth being paranoid and driving yourself into living a state of fear?  I don't think it is, which is why I am happy to start doing some normal-ish things with precautions.  I think we can start moving away from being sequestered in a measured way.

I get the stay at home orders were largely to flatten the curve to avoid overwhelming medical facilities.  I think it was necessary based on the LACK OF KNOWLEDGE.  Based on things we have done and learned I don't think it is irresponsible to start rolling back those measures in a controlled fashion.

And now for my vent about presenting stats consistently.  Look at this final page from the MA Dept of Public Health.

Some interesting things here...remember at the top of this very long post, I said numbers out of context don't make sense.  The image above does help to put some context but I still think it could be done better. 

For example they report the PERCENT of cases hospitalized but the NUMBER of cases in the ICU.  That is really difficult compare the numbers, for example if 4% of cases are hospitalized what is that count so you can compare it to the cases in the ICU, or conversely what is the percentage of cases in the ICU? 

When we first started this stay at home thing my expectation was that there would be a high percentage that needed to be hospitalized and that hasn't played out.  I think it is time for everyone to get a grip, proceed with caution but not paranoia, and not focus on small disaster data.

Finally I leave with this screen shot let that sink in for a bit; 98% are classified as 'mild'.  This is coming from worldometers, which seems to be one of the go to for data.  I have no doubt that for some people 'mild' may still make them feel miserable and but it paints a very different picture than the this is going to wipe the earth tone that has been floating around the news.    The Recovered/Discharged data is at 85% not too shabby.

Screen Shot from May 14, 2020 around 3:50 PM